Roanoke Times

January 23, 2007

By Dustin Long

Still Tinkering

NASCAR's chairman announced that this season's Chase for the Nextel Cup will expand by two teams to 12. Yet it remains easier to make the NFL, NBA and NHL playoffs than it does to make NASCAR's Chase.

While one can applaud France for not watering down the Chase, the question is did he go far enough? The sport relies on fan interest to entice sponsors, which fuel teams with their millions of dollars. If the fans aren't drawn by the drama, they'll go away and so could sponsors and some teams.

Fans showed less enthusiasm last year. Television ratings dropped for most races. SportsBusiness Daily research showed that three of the last five races in last year's Chase saw their TV ratings decline more than 10 percent from 2005. The issue is whether the decline is a trend or a hiccup.

This would have been a good time to make a bigger change instead of adding two teams to the Chase and boosting the value of victories.

Several new teams -- spurred mainly by Toyota's entrance -- gives NASCAR its deepest field of teams in years. Expanding the Chase further doesn't seem outrageous when gauged against other sports.

NASCAR's expansion means almost 28 percent of Cup teams in a race make the Chase. More than 50 percent of NBA and NHL teams make the playoffs. Nearly 38 percent of NFL teams make the postseason.

Only Major League Base ball, among the country's major pro leagues, has a smaller percentage of its teams advance to the playoffs (26.6 percent) than NASCAR.

"I was pretty set that 10 was the right number until my wife painted the picture that you just painted to me," Jeff Burton said. "What's right for the sport is whatever is right to make it as interesting as possible."

France said that adding two teams, which he referred to as wild card spots, is enough.

"Looking back historically, those are drivers that are trying to get in the top 10 and are surging at the end," France said. "If you're going to make radical changes, you would have to make them because you're forced to and, second, you have to be 1,000 percent sure you're going to be successful."

Increasing the field could have added drama. Wouldn't it be something to see the 15th-place driver rally to win the Chase? People love an underdog.

Don't think a team that barely makes the Chase deserves a title shot? Did you feel the same way about the Pittsburgh Steelers winning last year's Super Bowl despite being the lowest seed in their conference?

The St. Louis Cardinals won their division but had the second-worst record among the eight teams that made last season's Major League Baseball playoffs. The Cardinals won the World Series. Didn't hear many complaints about that.

Just as important is the added exposure the Chase provides to teams and sponsors.

Greg Biffle, who failed to make the Chase, made what proved to be a prophetic comment last June.

"If you don't make the Chase, you're nobody," he said, referring to media and TV exposure.

Teammate Carl Edwards and sponsor Office Depot can relate. Edwards made the Chase in 2005. He won a pair of races during it and tied for second. He missed the Chase last year.

He received about half as much attention in last year's TV broadcasts during the Chase as he did in 2005 when he was among the title contenders. The shortfall measured about $11 million worth of TV time, according to Joyce Julius & Associates, which analyzes TV exposures for sponsors.

Eric Wright, vice president of research and development for Joyce Julius, said that teams not in the Chase received about as much attention as they had in the first 26 races. Those who made the Chase, though, saw attention increase.

"You certainly want your TV time because it's such powerful exposure for your brand," said Mindy Kramer, director of public relations for Office Depot. "There's no other sport that gives you that type of exposure."

France wants to emphasize winning, but his changes to the Chase fall short when compared to other leagues.

What's new for NASCAR'S Chase for the Nextel Cup-- Top 12 drivers in the points will qualify for the Chase

-- Point totals will be reset to 5,000 points, then drivers will be awarded 10 bonus points for each victory previous to the Chase -- Qualifying by being within 400 points of the lead has been eliminated